Written By: Moustafa Bahran*
Article Date: Nov 29, 2010 - 9:59:44 AM
A Monte Carlo calculation is a powerful mathematical tool that is extensively used today. The term Monte Carlo was used to describe a class of mathematical methods perfected by scientists working on the development of nuclear weapons at Los Alamos National Laboratory in the US during the 1940s. It was used before that by Enrico Fermi when he studied the moderation of neutrons at the University of Rome. It’s basically a game of chance or random numbers whose outcome can be used to study specific events or phenomena that are random in nature, such as nuclear and radiation events.
Politics in general are not inherently random, yet sometimes can become just that, at least partly. Politics are an interaction of political variables. Some of these variables are controllable and some are not. Uncontrollable political variables are mostly pseudo-random. History has shown time and again occasions in which such pseudo-random variables became dominant in the political scene with unpredictable outcomes. Examples include events that have led to global destruction. The one in particular that comes to mind is Nazi Germany. Clearly at the time, nobody predicted that it would cause the global destruction of World War II.
Yemeni politics are not any different; it has semi-random variables as well. In fact it seems that these types of variables are taking over the political scene. Day by day the ability of observers to predict the outcome of political events in Yemen is diminishing. Yemeni politicians are complaining that they seem to have lost their grip on political events! Case example is the Yemeni national dialogue. The dialogue process is governed by the parties within it. Each party in itself is governed by its members and ranking file. Those members, ranking file and their behavior are not always predictable! Idiots, loose cannons, zealots, fanatics and other chaotic elements are looming all over the place.
Watching the events in the last couple of months visa vise the Yemeni national dialogue is anything but predictable. Every time, it seems that the parties are converging into an agreement, only to conclude divergently. Today the dialogue is at a total stalemate.
The only way to be able to predict today’s Yemeni political outcomes is by using some kind of Monte Carlo calculations. It seems that this type of calculation is the only mean in our hands if we are to hope to predict current Yemeni politics. This is why I am willing to offer a classroom to Yemeni politicians to teach them Monte Carlo calculations. Maybe they will become better politicians and just maybe will Yemen’s future have a chance.
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