Population explosion: 61 million Yemenis in 2035

A continuation of Yemen’s surging population growth rate will place an increasingly unsustainable burden upon the country’s natural resources and public services, according to a recent study by the National Population Council (NPC).

The study states that the population in Yemen grew tremendously from 4.3 million in 1950 to 19.7 millions in 2004. At this rate, with each Yemeni woman conceiving 6 children over her life time, the population is projected to reach 61 million by 2035.

The NPC warns of the dire implications for Yemen as the population boom corresponds with and accentuates resource scarcity amid low levels of development. 

In a discussion symposium held last Wednesday to release the report, the NPC called on all media outlets to raise awareness among the public of the risks that society would face. 

According to the study, the number of students in primary schools by 2035 would reach 14.7 million, requiring 490,000 teachers; the number of secondary students would be 2.9 million, needing 92.14 thousand teachers. US$7.68 billion would need to be found to build new school classes. The burden of education on the national budget would increase from US$419 million in 2008 to US$1.95 billion in 2035 for primary education; and secondary education from $82 million to $388 million during the same period.
 
In the health sector, Yemen would need 16,400 new doctors for a total of 123,000 doctors, 61,000 hospital beds, and the overall health budget would increase to $530 million.  

Regarding the projected population density, the study states that the portion of water for an individual would be reduced to 44 square meters each, and the portion of planted lands to 0.027 of an acre. Each citizen’s share of local food production would reduce by 29 percent, and the water supply would decrease by 33 percent per citizen.  

Alternative projections made by the United Nations suggest that if the fertility rate dropped to three children for each woman, the population would be 46 million. The third hypothesis presented by the NPC is that two children for each woman would make the population 43 million. These instances would reduce the number of students in primary schools to 8.83 million in the first case and 7.92 in the second and would only need between 300-400 thousand teachers for the two levels-primary and secondary. 

Furthermore, current expenses on education would reduce from two billion dollars to half and the need for doctors would not exceed 12,000. 

The Secretary General of the NPC, Dr Ahmed Ali Bourji, said that inviting media outlets to this symposium aims at getting them involved in the task of raising awareness and educating citizens. Managing Yemen's population growth will require a coordinated population control strategy, involving drastic changes to traditional attitudes about large families, which are no longer suited to urban dwelling. Additionally, the country needs urgent improvements in child medicine, streamlined public service delivery, and economic growth of a sufficient rate to generate the necessary 1.5 million new jobs each year.

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