New international study warns of the dangers of population growth in Yemen

The Resident Representative of the United Nation Population Fund, Hans Obdeijn, last Tuesday presented to the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, Abdulkareem Al-Arhabi, the results of the UNFPA’s analysis of the potential dangers for Yemen of continued population growth in the coming years in the fields of the economy, health, education and the effects on the individual’s share of natural resources like water and electricity.

The analysis is for the period of 2008-2033 and is based on two possible hypotheses, the first is that Yemen’s fertility rate continues at its current level of 6.1 children born per woman, and the second scenario envisions the rate falling to 3.3 children born per woman by the year 2020.  

The report adds that Yemen’s population is set to exceed 50 million if the current growth rate is maintained, 2.2 million job opportunities would be required and the number of pupils enrolled in primary education would be 14.7 million, which would mean 490,000 more teachers would be needed.

In terms of the effect on the health sector, 16,000 extra doctors would be required, and an extra 8392 million cubic meters of water will have to be found, this without considering the effects on electricity, security and other areas.

In the case of a reduction of fertility to 3.3 children per woman, the report predicts the population to reach 43 million in 2033.

A team of experts from the Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation and the National Population Board in Yemen prepared the analysis under supervision of experts from the Constella Futures Company, which is a global professional health services company that supports missions around the world dedicated to helping people live healthier, safer lives.

The Constella Group specializes in such analysis using a new program called Spectrum that is used in many countries. A previous study prepared last June 2007 in the frame of cooperation between the UNFPA, World Bank, USAID and the Yemeni government recommended such an analysis. The Fourth National Conference on Population, which will be held in Sana’a on December 10-12, 2007, attended by a number of local and international experts, s expected make wide use of the report. 

Prime Minister Ali Mujawar recently met Mr Obdeijn to discuss the current population program with him, which is being implemented in cooperation with the fund. They discussed the preparations for the upcoming conference and the importance of its findings in assisting the government and donors in implementing population policy. 

Mujawar praised the fund’s technical and financial support for population programs carried out by the National Council for Population and other departments, and reiterating his government’s commitment to raising awareness of reproductive health programs and extending them to rural areas in coordination with the fund to realize population policy objectives. 

On his part, the UNFPA representative talked about several programs his organization supports to alleviate population problems, and expressed his appreciation of the Ministry of Public Health and Population’s cooperation.

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