External Players and Prospects for Peace in Somalia

No objective individual would disagree that the common sense approach to problem solving is to identify the problem before tackling its source. Likewise, no reasonable individual would have difficulty understanding that any effort invested in treating symptoms at the expense of the core problem is an exercise in futility. Except when it comes to the Somali political problem.

For approximately two decades and 14 conferences, the Somali problem was approached in ways that ignored its multifaceted nature and thus failed to address the role of external actors in fueling the fire.  In each of these sensationalized, indeed costly "reconciliation conferences," ill-advised focus was put on clan power-sharing that placed the cart before the horse and granted individual clan representatives official licenses to loot.

During that period the Somali problem has metamorphosed into different political dynamics, groups, and indeed challenges; depending on that particular period's influential actors and the balance of power.  However, since the Ethiopian occupation, a natural political fusion has systematically taken its course; one that ultimately merged, and therefore reduced, the Somali problem into two groups – albeit these two groups espouse several competing interests that push the Somali one to bottom.

On one hand there is the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopia along with its partner, Washington. 

On the other, there is the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia and Eritrea (ARS).  However, it's worth noting that at this critical juncture, neither the TFG nor the ARS is entirely free to make independent decisions in the best interests of the Somali people or for the future of the Somali state without grave repercussions.

As a result of an unprecedented brain-drain, Somalia remains a mummified geographical body with a rapidly fading history, corroding identity, and questionable reasons to exist as a nation state. 

This failed state is now at the mercy of the international community. More specifically, it is at the mercy of external actors who wield powers that routinely frustrate any positive political dynamics that could inspire hope and pave the way for peace.

A case in point: While the Somali people were eagerly awaiting the signing of the (hole-riddled) U.N.-backed Djibouti peace accord, a circus of acts and counter-acts made its way to the center stage of the political theater of that country, dashing the hopes of millions whose lives hung in the balance.

Eritrea, Ethiopia's archenemy, driven by the old adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend," began to pull its strings of influence by pressuring a faction of the ARS, still situated in Asmara, to break ranks with its Western-supported colleagues who had participated in the Djibouti peace process.

While a failed peace process and the continuation of the violent insurgency in Somalia is in the strategic best interests of Eritrea – as that could, in due course, drain Ethiopia economically and demoralize its military – it entails a hefty price on the helpless Somali civilians who die as a result.

Reacting to the news of Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys becoming the chairman of the Asmara-based faction of the ARS, Washington – which considers Aweys a terrorist and has a warrant for his arrest – has issued a statement reasserting its position.

The "United States does not consider Aweys a legitimate representative of the opposition movement, the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia," said Nicole Thompson, a spokeswoman for the State Department. 

Concurrently, John Yates, the U.S. envoy for Somalia, held a press conference in Kenya confirming his government's commitment to continuing its global war on terrorism. 

Plainly stated, this means neither Aweys nor the al-Shabab militia in Somalia, an entity that Washington lists as a terrorist organization, will be considered as partners for peace any time soon – all the while, making diplomacy a distant dream.

Furthermore, in order to remove one of the major obstacles of peace and defuse the insurgency, the U.N. special envoy, with support from Washington, encouraged TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein to sack the mayor of Mogadishu, Muhammad Omar Habeeb (aka Muhammad Dheere). Dheere is broadly recognized as one of the most vicious warlords and loyal enforcer of the brutal policies of the Ethiopian occupation. Following news reports that he was sacked, thousands of Mogadishu residents took their jubilation to the streets. 

The action was not only seen as an olive branch to the people of Mogadishu who suffered under his reign, but as a first step toward eliminating the elements that radicalizes insurgency. 

Dheere was not just loathed for his brutality, but for the provocation of his vulgar boast. It is no secret that al-Shabab – the militant wing of the defunct Islamic Courts Union – is now much fiercer and enjoys much more popularity than pre-Christmas 2006 when the Ethiopian attack on Mogadishu began.

However, this seemingly sound strategy apparently offended another external actor – the Ethiopian occupation. Therefore, before the mayor could clear his highly protected compound, he was reinstated by TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, their mutual clan-based hatred notwithstanding.

Immediately following the announcement of the reinstatement, 11 pro-Ethiopia TFG cabinet ministers submitted their resignations. These resignations were not, in any way, a protest against the reinstatement; rather, they were against one of the main pillars that sustain the occupation.

As the old adage goes, in politics nothing happens at random. These ministers were herded to topple Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein's government. And, once again, both Washington and Eritrea – the remote-control influencers – are reminded of who has the capacity to make the ultimate decisions in Somalia. 

In the meantime, the worst humanitarian crisis in the world continues to worsen.

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